Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.668540 3.653988 5.056536 7.270083 1.081757e+01 1.655384e+01 27.165979
2025-02-16 1.780372 2.813801 4.596702 8.157208 1.585022e+01 3.402774e+01 90.687295
2025-02-23 1.183128 2.076126 3.859086 8.179446 2.042442e+01 6.335224e+01 325.432480
2025-03-02 0.800742 1.521756 3.136786 7.740579 2.448927e+01 1.136802e+02 1514.488085
2025-03-09 0.618521 1.275479 2.937004 8.622006 3.679657e+01 3.153085e+02 46865.885005
2025-03-16 0.484071 1.069783 2.716934 9.396959 5.503584e+01 1.078268e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.394774 0.931119 2.602481 10.676182 9.070867e+01 6.960518e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.324903 0.810648 2.468697 11.914089 1.516284e+02 1.514023e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.256405 0.662933 2.134810 11.513792 1.999633e+02 3.328846e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.202471 0.537199 1.802882 10.587682 2.386993e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.172974 0.476839 1.703333 11.432697 4.072751e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.154411 0.444821 1.710399 13.553954 9.471466e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.138866 0.419393 1.749395 16.850702 3.227146e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.120987 0.377676 1.670218 18.662435 9.870685e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102273 0.325207 1.486746 18.134884 2.057702e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.085775 0.275709 1.285442 16.533386 3.248222e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.076812 0.253741 1.244049 18.409361 2.649446e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.068775 0.232585 1.191525 20.036227 1.001345e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062752 0.217879 1.173570 22.985935 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057249 0.203410 1.145721 25.875863 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050466 0.180729 1.033787 24.560952 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044195 0.158662 0.912002 22.021127 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040655 0.148501 0.883320 23.950309 NaN NaN NaN